Lula secures runoff victory in Brazil – but not thanks to his iGaming ban

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has secured a victory in Brazil’s presidential runoff, closing out a highly polarised election cycle. For the global iGaming industry, however, the political focus now shifts strictly to Brasília’s legislative chambers, where the fate of the country’s betting market hangs in the balance.

Just nine days before the first round of voting, Lula signed Provisional Measure (MP) 1,394/2026, implementing an abrupt ban on fixed-odds sports betting and online casinos. The move effectively suspended a market the administration had only recently introduced a regulatory for.

Yet, despite the dramatic executive action, the strategy failed to translate into a decisive first-round mandate, where his opponent captured a larger share of the vote.

Anti-betting rhetoric falls flat at the ballot box

The intersection of gambling regulation and voter sentiment proved far less potent than prohibition advocates anticipated. According to an analysis published by iGamingToday, congressional and gubernatorial candidates who made anti-gambling their central campaign issue significantly underperformed during the first round of voting.

In Rio de Janeiro, vocal opponents of the betting sector faced major setbacks, while in states like Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul, candidates heavily promoting the ban either lost outright or lagged significantly behind in the polls. Pre-election data indicated that while a majority of Brazilians supported tighter regulations, the issue simply did not drive voter behaviour. According to social survey groups, nearly 60 per cent of voters stated that a candidate’s stance on betting would not change their vote.

Recognising that the sudden ban risked alienating a massive demographic of football fans and financially disrupting major sports clubs, the issue effectively vanished from the campaign trail during the second round.

Campaign insiders reportedly viewed the aggressive first-round decree as a "shot in the foot," prompting the incumbent's camp to quietly pivot away from the topic to secure the runoff victory.

The legislative horizon: what happens next?

With the election settled, the Brazilian iGaming sector is now on a strict countdown. Federal betting licenses formally expired on 25th October under the provisions of MP 1,394/2026. However, in Brazil, a Provisional Measure is not a permanent law – it is an executive order that requires congressional approval to become permanent.

Congress must now review the ban under a tight constitutional schedule, with the measure set to expire by 23rd November unless it is voted into law. The measure can be extended for an additional 60 days, making late January 2027 the effective final deadline by when the ban must obtain congressional approval or lose its validity entirely.

Whatever the outcome, Lula’s pre-election gamble is likely to have a chilling effect on the industry.

Speaking to sister portal WhosWho.mt earlier this month, Standout Software CEO Justin Paul Anastasi pointed out that Brazil effectively “invited iGaming firms to pay for licences, hire locally, and invest heavily in building compliant operations,” only to pull the rug out from under them.

“What if they open the market again? Will these companies remember how quickly the rules changed, and how they were treated? So the longer term damage is to Brazil as a market where companies in the gaming space would want to invest in the future.”